Big Sarge Economy Watch
What It Costs to Live Here Now. An independent read on the national economy and the working American, written by Wayne Ince from Tampa, Florida. For readers following the Economy Watch series, this blog provides context for what it means to live through today’s changes.
The economy on paper and the economy in your kitchen are two different animals. One shows up in a quarterly report. The other shows up when you swipe your card at the pump, open the daycare invoice, or read the letter from your insurer. If you’ve been keeping up with the Economy Watch newsletter, you know it tracks the second economy, the one wage earners actually live in. Every issue walks the receipts: real numbers, plain language, no spin.
The fronts we track
Prices climb in the places that hit a paycheck first. Each issue checks the ones that matter most on our Economy Watch radar:
- Groceries: what it takes to fill the cart now versus a year ago.
- Gas: the number at the pump and where it’s headed.
- Rent: the stickiest line in inflation, and why flat isn’t affordable.
- Childcare: the second rent nobody voted for.
- Healthcare: premiums, subsidies, and the cliff underneath them.
- Utilities & energy: the bill you can’t turn off.
Latest issue
Vol. 1, Issue 10: What It Costs to Live Here Now
September 14, 2026. The August inflation report picked up, and the reason has a name: gasoline. The gas index jumped 3.9 percent in a single month and 27.4 percent over the year per BLS, the single largest force pushing inflation back up, and the pump kept climbing after the report closed to $4.31 a gallon by September 13 per AAA, up a dollar and fourteen cents since last September. The same shock is spreading to airfare, up 23.4 percent over the year. Food at home held flat at 2.2 percent over the year, shelter rose to 3.0 percent, electricity eased for the month but stayed 3.8 percent up on the year, toddler care held at $24,468, and the 2027 ACA hike is locked in at a 15 percent median nationwide. This month the front line is a fuel line, and it runs from two shipping straits straight to your tank.
Supplements
Standalone pieces that sit alongside a numbered issue when a single story earns its own read.
- The Vacancy Sign: gas and airfare are emptying the tourist towns (companion to Issue 10). Airfare is up 23.4 percent and airlines’ jet-fuel bill jumped 84 percent in a year. Florida is down 1.4 percent for the first half and Las Vegas down 7.5 percent in 2025, its worst outside the pandemic. The fuel shock reaches the towns built on travel.
- The Fuel-Cost Squeeze: gas and airfare, one barrel (companion to Issue 10). AAA regular hit $4.316 a gallon and airline fares are up 23.4 percent over the year, both climbing off the same crude. The household cut of the same fuel shock, from the pump to the boarding pass.
- The Chokepoint Tax: two straits, one fuel bill (companion to Issue 10). Brent broke $100 as the Strait of Hormuz came under fire and Houthi forces seized Mayun island and the port of Mokha on Bab el-Mandeb. Two waterways on the far side of the planet, landing on your fuel receipt.
- The Kremlin Handshake: two U.S. envoys, three hours in Moscow, joint economic projects on the table (companion to Issue 9). Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner sat with Vladimir Putin on September 5, 2026. The Kremlin readout named joint economic ventures. The U.S. Senate voted 86 to 11 on August 7 to prohibit all American investment in Russia. Two governments are being negotiated with. Ask whose family stands to profit.
- The Beef Bribe: a ninety-day discount that expires when the votes get counted (companion to Issue 7). The White House’s Friday tariff waiver on up to 300,000 metric tons of ground beef, read against the election calendar and the ranchers’ response.
Previous issues
- Vol. 1, Issue 9: What It Costs to Live Here Now
- Vol. 1, Issue 8: Labor Day Edition
- Vol. 1, Issue 7: What It Costs to Live Here Now
- Vol. 1, Issue 6: What It Costs to Live Here Now
- Vol. 1, Issue 5: What It Costs to Live Here Now
- Vol. 1, Issue 4: What It Costs to Live Here Now
- Vol. 1, Issue 3: One Cool Print, Same Hot Bills
- Vol. 1, Issue 2: Losing Ground in Slow Motion
- Vol. 1, Issue 1: What It Costs to Live Here Now
Kitchen-table explainer: early 401(k) withdrawals
Reader resource: Early 401(k) withdrawals: what it costs before 59½. Pull money from a traditional 401(k) before 59½ and the IRS takes ordinary income tax plus a 10 percent penalty under Section 72(t). Read the full math, a worked $50,000 example, and every exception that waives the penalty, including the one for called-up reservists.
Every issue
Browse the full archive of Big Sarge Economy Watch as new issues land: Economy Watch archive →
An independent read on the national economy and the working Americans. Founded and written by Wayne Ince. Tampa, Florida.