The Veteran Economic Briefing Model is an interactive dashboard that lets you run household-level arithmetic on a single question: when a sustained overseas military engagement drives fuel prices higher, what is left in the budget at the end of the month? This guide walks you through every section of the tool so you can use it with confidence the first time you open it.
What the tool is and is not
Before adjusting any sliders, understand the frame. This model is built for scenario analysis, not prediction. It does not claim that any specific military operation caused any specific price at any specific pump. What it does is let you set assumptions — duration, shock size, household consumption — and then run the math. The assumptions are yours. The arithmetic is the model’s. Use it to stress-test a household budget under a range of conditions, not to forecast what will happen.
Section one: Current Baseline Data
The five cards at the top of the page are fixed reference points drawn from government data. They do not change when you move the sliders — they are the anchor you are measuring the shock against.
Regular Gasoline — $4.50/gal. This is the EIA weekly U.S. retail price for regular unleaded for the week ending May 11, 2026. It is the baseline the calculator uses for direct pump-cost math.
On-Highway Diesel — $5.64/gal. This is the EIA weekly price for No. 2 on-highway diesel for the same week. Diesel matters beyond the truck stop because freight moves on diesel, and freight costs pass through into groceries, household goods, and services. The calculator uses this number for the indirect cost estimate.
CPI All-Items YoY — 3.8%. The April 2026 Bureau of Labor Statistics headline inflation rate. This is the broad price context the household is already absorbing before any fuel shock is layered on top.
Gasoline CPI YoY — 28.4%. Also from BLS April 2026. Fuel-sensitive inflation is running at more than seven times the core rate. For a household with a fixed commute and no transit alternative, that gap is a budget problem that compounds every month the price stays elevated.
FY2026 NDAA — $890.6B. The authorized national defense topline for fiscal year 2026. The CBO full DoD budget request, including $113 billion provided through the 2025 reconciliation act, comes to $961 billion. This card sets the scale of the U.S. military commitment the model is analyzing.
Section two: Fuel Price Series table
The table shows annual average retail prices for regular gasoline and on-highway diesel across 2024, 2025, and 2026 year-to-date, alongside the latest weekly observed price. Read it left to right. The 2024 and 2025 averages give you the recent baseline trend. The 2026 YTD average shows where the year has tracked so far. The rightmost column, highlighted in gold, is the current week — the number the calculator anchors to. The jump from the 2025 annual average to the latest weekly is the shock you are already living: gasoline moved from a $3.10 annual average in 2025 to $4.50 in the latest week.
Section three: National Defense Authorizations table
This table provides the defense spending context for the model. FY2024 and FY2025 both came in at $883.7 billion authorized. FY2026 rose to $890.6 billion. The FY2026 row is highlighted because it is the current fiscal year. The notes column flags that the CBO puts the full DoD budget request — including emergency supplemental and reconciliation funding — at $961 billion for FY2026. These numbers are not directly linked to your slider outputs; they are here to establish the scale of the overseas commitment the model treats as a risk variable amplifying energy-market uncertainty.
Section four: The Household Impact Calculator
This is where the model does its work. The left panel has seven sliders. The right panel shows four output numbers, a percentage, a budget bar, and a verdict. Every time you move a slider the outputs update instantly.
The seven inputs
Deployment Duration (months). How many months the overseas engagement continues at elevated intensity. Range is 1 to 24 months. This input controls the cumulative loss calculation — it does not change the monthly cost, only how many months that cost accumulates. A six-month engagement that costs $74 a month produces a $444 cumulative loss. The same monthly cost over eighteen months produces $1,332.
Fuel Price Shock (% above baseline). The assumed percentage increase in both gasoline and diesel prices above the current EIA baseline. The default is 28%, which matches the April 2026 BLS year-over-year gasoline CPI reading — conditions that are already present. Moving this slider higher models a scenario where conflict near oil-producing regions or major shipping lanes pushes prices further. A 0% shock produces zero cost increase, which is useful as a control run to confirm you are reading the outputs correctly.
Monthly Gasoline (gallons). How many gallons the household pumps each month. The default of 50 gallons represents roughly 1,200 miles at 24 miles per gallon — a reasonable estimate for a single-vehicle household with a moderate commute. A household running two vehicles will likely be in the 80–120 gallon range. A veteran household in a rural area with a long drive to the nearest VA facility may also be at the higher end. This is your most important slider for personalizing the direct cost estimate.
Diesel-Linked Exposure (gal-equiv). This captures the indirect cost of diesel price increases — the freight pass-through that moves into groceries, utilities, medical supplies, and other household goods. It is expressed in gallons-equivalent because the model runs it through the same diesel price and shock percentage as a direct fuel cost, then applies the pass-through rate to arrive at an estimate. The default of 20 gallons-equivalent is a conservative proxy for a household that buys groceries and receives regular deliveries.
Diesel Pass-Through Rate (%). Not all of a diesel price increase reaches the end consumer. Shippers absorb some, retailers absorb some, and timing lags reduce the immediate impact. The default of 35% means the model assumes 35 cents of every dollar of diesel-cost increase eventually reaches the household through higher goods prices. EIA and academic literature on freight cost pass-through generally support a range of 25–50% depending on market conditions and time horizon.
Monthly Gross Income. The household’s total monthly income before taxes. The default of $4,200 represents a common range for a veteran household on a mid-career pension plus part-time employment or a surviving spouse’s income. This input does not directly affect the shock calculations — the direct and indirect cost increases are the same regardless of income. It provides context: a $74 monthly shock on a $4,200 income is a different decision than the same shock on a $1,800 income.
Baseline Discretionary Income. This is what the household has left each month after fixed obligations — rent or mortgage, insurance, utilities, debt service, and food. The default of $600 is intentionally conservative. If you are not sure of your household’s discretionary baseline, subtract your fixed monthly obligations from your net take-home pay. That remaining figure is what the model measures the shock against.
The six outputs
Direct monthly fuel-cost increase. The additional dollars the household pays at the pump each month. Calculated as: monthly gallons × baseline gas price × shock percentage. At the defaults: 50 × $4.50 × 28% = $63.00 per month.
Indirect diesel-linked cost increase. The estimated monthly freight pass-through cost. Calculated as: diesel-equivalent gallons × baseline diesel price × shock percentage × pass-through rate. At the defaults: 20 × $5.64 × 28% × 35% ≈ $11.05 per month.
Total monthly shock. Direct plus indirect. At the defaults: $63.00 + $11.05 = $74.05 per month. This is the number the household needs to find in the budget every month the elevated prices persist.
Cumulative loss over duration. Total monthly shock multiplied by the number of months. At the defaults with a six-month duration: $74.05 × 6 = $444.33. This is the number that makes the cost visible across time rather than hiding it inside a single monthly figure. It is where the kitchen-table decision gets made — whether the car repair waits, whether the prescription gets split, whether the trip home happens.
Remaining discretionary income. Baseline discretionary income minus total monthly shock. The color signals the household’s pressure level. Green means the margin holds above $400 per month — the shock is absorbed. Yellow means the margin is compressed but positive — non-essential spending shrinks. Orange means less than $100 remains — deferral begins. Red means the shock exceeds baseline discretionary income entirely — the household is in deficit.
Discretionary drawdown (%). Total monthly shock as a percentage of baseline discretionary income. The budget bar below it visualizes the same number on a scale from 0 to 100%. When the bar fills past 100%, the household is in deficit territory.
The verdict box
The dark box below the budget bar gives a plain-language summary of what the numbers mean. It updates every time you move a slider. If you are running the model for a household you know, adjust the sliders until the verdict reflects the actual pressure level that household is experiencing — then read the dollar outputs to put a number on it.
How to run a useful scenario
Start with the control run. Set the shock slider to 0% and confirm all cost outputs read $0.00 and remaining discretionary income equals your baseline. This tells you the model is reading your inputs correctly before you add any shock.
Then set the shock to 28% — the current observed year-over-year gasoline inflation rate from BLS. Adjust monthly gasoline gallons to match your actual household consumption. If you have two vehicles, count both. If you drive to a VA facility regularly, add those miles. Now read the total monthly shock and remaining discretionary income. That is your current-conditions baseline scenario.
From there, use the duration slider to extend the scenario. A six-month engagement at the current shock level costs one amount. A twelve-month engagement costs twice that. The cumulative loss column is where the budget conversation becomes concrete.
Finally, try a stress scenario. Move the shock slider to 45–55% to model what a significant supply disruption — conflict near the Strait of Hormuz, a major Gulf production outage, or a rapid drawdown of strategic reserves — might produce at the pump. Most veteran households on a fixed income cannot absorb a shock in that range without making trade-offs. The model will show you exactly where the line is for the inputs you have set.
A note on the sources
All baseline data in the model comes from primary government sources: EIA weekly retail fuel price surveys, BLS Consumer Price Index releases, the Senate Armed Services Committee NDAA conference summaries, CRS NDAA analysis, and CBO defense budget projections. The source line at the bottom of the model page lists each one. If you want to check a number or update the baseline for a future scenario, those sources publish updated data weekly and monthly.
Open the model
The model is free to use, requires no login, and runs entirely in your browser. All calculations happen on your device — no data is collected or transmitted.
Related reading: Veteran PTSD and the Hidden Economic Cost of Military Service — the broader context for the data in this model, including the human and economic cost of PTSD in the veteran community.
Go deeper: Read our complete guide — Veteran PTSD: Understanding, Treating, and Living Beyond Post-Traumatic Stress.
Where to Go Next
The model only makes sense alongside the human and political context that produced it.
- Veteran PTSD and the Hidden Economic Cost of Military Service. The broader analysis the model puts in your hands.
- The Unseen March Hub. The book and companion app on PTSD recovery.
- Veteran PTSD: Understanding, Treating, and Living Beyond Post-Traumatic Stress. The clinical and human guide.
- 2026 Election War Room. The political context for the military spending decisions modeled here.
- When War Gets Expensive at Home: The Hidden Bill at the Pump. The piece that started this analysis.
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